Four Ways to Keep Your Job in a Slowing Job Market

Whether chatting with co-workers or watching the evening news, the looming "recession" seems an impossible topic to avoid. With such talk comes a heightened sense of anxiety: Just how safe is my job?

Recessions and unemployment have long gone hand in hand. During the recession in the early 1990s, the unemployment rate reached nearly 9%; in the early 1980s, it exceeded 10%. And even though the "r" word hasn't established itself with any certainty (yet) and the latest unemployment numbers remain fuzzy at best — December's 5% unemployment rate was worrisome, but jobless claims slipped to a four-week low the week ending Jan. 19 — economists' expectations are hardly optimistic.

"The labor market is going to struggle," says Sophia Koropeckyj, an economist at Moody's Economy.com. Even if the Federal Reserve is successful in its efforts to skirt a recession, Economy.com still projects "pretty weak" near-term employment growth. "We're not going to see a large increase in unemployment, but what we are going to see is that businesses, because of declining confidence in the economy — and we're already seeing that — are going to hold off hiring new people," she says.

Should the government's efforts (through rate cuts and a proposed economic stimulus package) fail to keep us from sinking into a recession, the job picture will look much bleaker than that. "We're looking at a contraction of the labor market through the middle of 2009," Koropeckyj says.

Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg recently wrote in a research report that he expects unemployment to reach 5.75% by the end of 2008 and 6% by early 2009. "To be sure, this is low by historical standards," he wrote, "but would still be very close to the peaks posted during the 2002-03 jobless recovery."

In some industries, it already feels like that bleak job market of five years ago. With the subprime meltdown forcing people to put their homes up for sale and few buyers to absorb that inventory, those working in the housing industry are especially feeling the pinch. The collateral damage is widespread, impacting the livelihood of not only mortgage bankers and realtors, but also home builders and construction companies, building materials manufacturers and even home improvement retailers, says John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement consulting firm which tracks the labor market.

Of course, the rank and file of the financial-services industry that doled out those subprime loans has also taken a hit. Citibank announced last week it would cut 4,200 jobs with more to come. Bank of America said it would lay off 650 workers in its investment-banking unit. That could be just the beginning of the bloodletting, especially if the economy slides into recession. Even worse, however, is the potential spillover effect that the financial-services industry's troubles could have on other sectors, in particular retailing and hospitality.

A rash of credit-card delinquencies, has already spurred banks to tighten their lending standards. Should defaults and late payments continue to rise, banks will make it even harder for consumers to access lines of credit or secure the loans they need to finance the next family vacation or new couch. That lack of disposable income could also hurt the U.S. automotive industry, which has been shedding jobs for years now, says Challenger.

There are, however, industries that are immune to economic downturns. The doctors, nurses and pharmacists of the health-care industry can rest easy. People get sick no matter what the economic climate. Our growing dependence on oil and gas won't go away either, making it a good time to work on an oil rig or as an electrical engineer. And "global" employees — those who have the skills and are willing to relocate to other counties — will benefit as global markets continue to be an area of growth for U.S. companies, Challenger says.

No matter what field you work in, it's always good to "recession-proof" your job. "Whether or not we go into a recession, the knee-jerk reaction of many corporations in times like this is to let people go," says Stephen Viscusi, CEO of Viscusi Group, a New York-based headhunting company. Here are four ways to make sure this doesn't happen to you.

Make yourself indispensable

If your manager has to cut 10% of the staff, you certainly don't want to be at the top of her list. That means, before all, maintaining a good relationship with your boss, Challenger says. "If [your relationship] is in disrepair, now is the time work on it," he says.

Meet with your manager regularly to make sure you're on the same page regarding your performance objectives and ask directly what you can do to improve. Viscusi's advice: If you haven't had your annual performance review yet, hand in an updated resume to bring your boss up to date on your accomplishments and responsibilities at the company.

Your manager loves you? Great. Now make sure he's not alone. Other managers should know and value your work as well. "If your boss loses his or her job, you want someone else to know who you are and speak well of you," Challenger says.

Don't be high-maintenance

Even if you're among your company's top-performing employees, that won't matter much if you're a pain in the neck. "Human resources people will deny this, but in nine times out of 10, they fire what I describe as HMEs: high-maintenance employees," Viscusi explains. The people who always complain about the temperature in the office, the fax machine or who can't stop bragging about their achievements and feel entitled, or who are just difficult to work with, are the first to be let go even if they're excellent performers. "Firing is 90% subjective," Viscusi says.

Stay busy

Now is not the time to take a three-week vacation or plan your wedding at work. "People keep employees who really look like they're working," Viscusi says. His advice: Take on as many assignments as possible, but make sure to be honest with your manager about your ability to complete them. If the deadline is Wednesday and you're concerned about meeting it, tell them how busy you are and that you'll make every effort to get the work done on time. Then do your best to impress them by meeting that deadline.

Do damage control

Workers between 45 and 60 years old who get the pink slip should consider negotiating with the company to stay at a lower salary, Viscusi says. It doesn't sound that crazy when you consider that finding a new job may take as long as two years for people in this age group, he notes. Doing so will buy you time to look for a new job while you're still receiving a paycheck and, should things improve financially at the company, your compensation could jump back up.
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